Provincial Health Authority predicts 25% of PG population will be 65+ by 2040

Is an assisted living access crisis on the horizon as big demographic changes are forecasted for Prince George?

PG currently has a relatively young population, but the Provincial Health Services Authority (PHSA) projects that this will steadily change over the next twenty years.

Statistics Canada reports that as of the last census, in 2016:

• 18% of the provincial population was age 65 or older

• 14% of the Fraser-Fort George population was age 65 or older

Furthermore, 6,300 individuals in the region were between 60-64 years old, meaning that they have already transitioned to the 65+ category since the census was conducted.

This continued growth supports PHSA’s bold prediction that 25% of Prince George’s population will be age 65+ by 2040, which would represent an 11% increase in the senior population in the city.

A report compiled by Research Associate Andrew Longhurst of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) found that, between 2010 and 2017, Northern Health saw a 5% increase in publicly subsidized assisted living access rates, making it the only health authority in the province to see growth.

While the 5% increase is positive, the rate of growth must be maintained to ensure that seniors continue to have access to assisted living, as the PHSA reported that between 2010 and 2017, there was a 4.1% increase in the senior population with exponential growth expected for the future.

Additionally, Longhurst explained that in late 2019, 317 individuals were on waitlists for subsidized assisted living in the Northern Health region a number that he warned may not represent actual need as many individuals may be discouraged, potentially not placing themselves onto long waitlists.

The average provincial wait time to get into long term care is 129 days, while Northern Health wait times are significantly longer, at 224 days according to The Office of BC Seniors Advocate.