Provincial health officer Dr Bonnie Henry presented examples of modelling at this morning’s (Friday) COVID-19 update and explained that the spread of the virus within the province may be starting to slow.
Models projected a 24% daily increase in cases without social distancing measures, a figure that starkly contrasts the roughly 12% daily growth rate currently seen in the province.
Henry explained that models are not the same as predictions, but potential possibilities created through data collected by experts.
We are at a critical point in our response to COVID-19. British Columbians are making a difference. What we are doing today is working – but we are not out of danger yet. We must keep it up. Every person in BC needs to work together to prevent the spread of COVID-19. #COVIDBC pic.twitter.com/MrX4lC2gAI
— BC Government News (@BCGovNews) March 27, 2020
“BC’s rate of growth is being positively impacted by the public health measures adopted over the past few weeks,” she explained.
Dr Henry added that because of the virus’ 14-day incubation period, the province may begin to fully see the impact of social distancing measures in the upcoming weeks.
She also emphasized the importance of continuing to follow the advice of public health authorities.
BC has 1200 ventilators available with more on order, province has just over 5600 acute medical and surgical inpatient beds
— My Prince George Now (@mypgnow) March 27, 2020
BC Minister of Health Adrian Dix spoke on critical care estimates, specifically focusing on ventilator and hospital bed capacity.
Dix said that he believes it is likely the virus trajectory will remain at, or below, the epidemic level seen in the Chinese province, Hubei.
If the virus moves at a Hubei trajectory, capacity “looks good,” according to Dix.
A Northern Italy trajectory is being called an unlikely possibility and would result in a significant but manageable strain on medical resources.
Henry concluded the presentation by ordering that all “episodic vendors” such as farmer’s markets only allow for food products to be sold.
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