Toeing the party line: What BC’s next legislature might look like

As BC’s NDP party gears up to form government, it’s still anybody’s guess as to how the next legislative session will go.

After 16 years as the opposition party and with a razor thin plurality in the house, the NDP, bolstered by three Green MLAs, will likely have their work cut out for them. While many current NDP MLAs have never held a cabinet post, many of the Liberals have held several, some for years at a time.

“I think the NDP and Green Party should be really worried about facing what should be the most fierce opposition the province has ever seen,” says Jason Morris, a political science lecturer at UNBC. “Given size of its caucus but also the fact that so many of them had cabinet positions which they know so intimately that they’ll be able to really tear strips off the NDP and Greens if they are not over prepared.”

But Morris says the Liberals are going to have to adjust as well.

“BC Liberal MLAs, those that went back to 2001, for 16 years they’ve been in a terrific position of being able to always propose and do and now they’re in a situation where they can pretty much only oppose and not do a whole lot.”

As the Liberals hold 43 seats and the NDP-Green alliance accounts for 44, Morris believes party discipline will be tight.

“Given the nature of the seat distribution, we’re going to have to see a situation of party discipline like we’ve never seen it before. If any MLA thought they had some freedom, some latitude, some flexibility to sing from their own song sheet, they are sorely mistaken and they will face vicious reprimand for exhibiting any autonomy.”

The May 2017 election is one for the history books no matter what the government ends up doing. It’s the first time in more than 60 years that a BC Premier has lost the confidence of the House immediately following an election. There have been reports that this is the first time in 134 years that a sitting government has been replaced by the opposition party after losing a confidence vote – instead of being asked to try again in the House or the province going back to the polls.

Morris says the election could also be a momentous one for both major party leaders.

“BC’s in a unique situation for having turfed its longest-lasting female Premier and we have a situation in which the NDP has never had a Premier re-elected, which doesn’t bode well for Premier-elect Horgan.”

Horgan will definitely have a lot on his plate. Morris says minority governments typically run smoothly for about two years so we could be back at the polls sooner than many would like.